Considering these - http://www.imdb.com/oscars/nominations/screen-actors-guild -
And these - http://www.imdb.com/oscars/nominations/golden-globes
Here are my picks for the Oscar nominations:
Actor: (LOCKS) George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Jujardin, The Artist; Brad Pitt, Moneyball; Michael Fassbender, Shame. Those are all near-guarantees. That fifth one? Hmmm... I'm thinking Gary Oldman gets muscled out by Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March. This will make up for Gosling's lack of nomination last year for Blue Valentine and as a reward for what was a terrific year for him.
Actress: (LOCKS) Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Viola Davis, The Help; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn. That's four. This is where we get tricky. Will it be Rooney Mara? Glenn Close as a woman playing a man? Charlize Theron for the well-received, Diablo Cody-scripted Young Adult? I'm thinking Theron will get left out; same for Mara, as the girl with the dragon tattoo; Close, who hasn't been nominated in twenty-three years, will fill that last slot for Albert Nobbs.
Supporting Actor: (LOCKS) Christopher Plummer, Beginners; Albert Brooks, Drive; Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn. That's it on the shoe-ins. I'm not quite fully convinced that Moneyball's Jonah Hill will be included with these other stalwarts, but he's got a shot. Nick Nolte will get his third nomination for his grizzled father in Warrior. So is it Hill? Armie Hammer for the widely-panned J.Edgar? Viggo Mortensen? Kevin Spacey? Nah, Hill gets it.
Supporting Actress: (LOCKS) Octavia Spencer, The Help; Berenice Bejo, The Artist; Jessica Chastain, not for Tree of Life, not Take Shelter, not The Debt, but The Help. Here it gets dicey. Already it's a largely star-lacking category, with all first-time nominees, relative unknowns. The big question is, can Melissa McCarthy get in? I say, why not? But the answer is no. I think the great Vanessa Redgrave gets in for Coriolanus, leaving one final spot. If Janet McTeer gets it for Albert Nobbs, she will surely be the least-known actor with two Oscar nominations within the last twelve years (she was nominated for 1999's earthy, enjoyable Tumbleweeds). I don't think it will happen. Pencil in The Descendants' Shailene Woodley.
Director: (LOCKS) Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist; Alexander Payne, The Descendants. I haven't heard enough early reviews for Steven Spielberg's War Horse, but it certainly has a lot going for it, so I'll give him the fourth spot. Fifth? Let's go with the Woodman, with his best-reviewed movie in years, Midnight in Paris.
Picture: (LOCKS) The Artist; The Descendants; War Horse; The Help; Midnight in Paris; Hugo; Moneyball. Now I don't know, but what the hell? Tree of Life, Bridesmaids, and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.
Bird of the day: Look no further than the black-capped chickadee. Tiny, with an oversized round head, a black cap and bib, it's truly a curious bird, investigative and bold. Bouncy and acrobatic, too. These birds can be found throughout the north of this continent year round, from, say, Kansas to Alaska in woody shrubs, woodlots, marshes, residential neighborhoods and parks. This chickadee has an amazing memory, hiding bits of food and seeds in thousands of different places for later on, and it is able to retrieve them all (well, most of 'em) at later points.
I watched Inglorious Basterds with David today. This was the third time I've seen the film, and I am convinced more than ever that Christop Waltz's sly, rollicking, frightening turn as Colonel Hans Landa is undoubtedly among the finest of the last decade. Of all Quentin Tarantino's discoveries and junkheap-retrievals (Travolta, Robert Forster, Pam Grier, David Carradine), I think Waltz is the real treasure, although Forster (recently seen, poignantly curmudgeonly, a bitter blast, in The Descendants) is great underseen and should have never faded out to begin with.
Saw a dolphin yesterday! Three of them! Made my year! Happy holidays!
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